BCD SPECIAL REPORT ON HISTORIC CHURCHES 32nd ANNUAL EDITION 23 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS Morwenna Slade CLIMATE CHANGE represents a profound physical threat to the built environment, and historic buildings and sites in particular face a range of impacts and vulnerabilities due to age, materials, construction and heritage value. Using a multidisciplinary approach, it is possible to assess climate risk and to identify and understand the vulnerability of these heritage assets, so we can plan their care more effectively. Vulnerability analysis helps us to prioritise conservation work, demonstrate capacity for change and prepare for loss, and it is rapidly becoming an integral part of communicating risks and opportunities to stakeholders and funders. Historic buildings and sites offer a unique resource of knowledge regarding longevity of materials and fabric performance in different climates, as well as needing sensitive adaptation and preparation for future loss if required. Climate change projections suggest that a rapidly changing climate will intensify existing threats and create new risks for historic sites, as well as for the organisations that care for them and for those who use them. The latest Climate Change Committee report assessing adaptation, published in April 2025, states that there is now unequivocal evidence that climate change is resulting in more extreme weather in the UK. October 2022 to March 2024 was the wettest 18 months ever recorded for England. Ten counties experienced the wettest September (2024) with a typical month’s worth of rainfall in one day in some areas. Following this, Spring 2025 was the driest on record and over all 2025 is projected to be the warmest year on record for the UK. It is therefore more urgent than ever for us to understand the vulnerabilities of our historic buildings, and to plan for their resilience and recoverability. Climate resilience can be informed by understanding three key elements: climate hazards, site or building exposure and its vulnerability, and resulting climate risk. Climate hazards are driving forces and natural phenomena which may impact a site. These include storms, droughts and heatwaves. Vulnerability is the degree to which a building or site is susceptible to harm from a given hazard as a result of its maintenance status or orientation, for example. However, any assessment needs to consider the extent of exposure too, including the people and infrastructure that could be affected by a hazard. Climate risk includes specific harms that may occur to a building or site as a result of future climate change in a building with particular exposure and vulnerability. A comprehensive strategy South Wingfield church in Derbyshire, 2017: climate change hazards facing historic buildings include stronger storms, higher rainfall and flooding, more frequent and intense droughts, higher humidity levels, coastal erosion and rising seas. (Photo: Kmtextor, CC BY-SA 4.0) Monthly rise in average temperatures forecasted under UK Climate Predictions 2018 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at the present rate (RCP8.5)
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